Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +28 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -16.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -11.6 (+16.4) | 132.6 (-18.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -13.3 (+14.7) | 133.7 (-19.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -14.2 (+13.8) | 133.0 (-19.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -14.2 (+13.8) | 132.7 (-18.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | -9.4 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#235) | -3.04 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#236) | -4.63 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#261) | 0.348 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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