Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | UCD -155 PAC +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -7.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -3.0 (+3.0) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.7 (-0.7) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -6.9 (-0.9) | 139.0 (-19.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.8 (-0.8) | 138.7 (-18.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | UCD 82 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 2, 2022 | PAC 74 – 72 UCD |
| Dec 19, 2021 | UCD 77 – 67 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#171) | -1.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#109) | -1.75 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#138) | -2.37 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#127) | 0.317 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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