We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
University Credit Union Center · December 2, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UCD -3.0 Home covered
O/U 136.0 Under
Money UCD -155 / PAC +135
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCD win
Actual UCD +6 120 Won
Massey UCD -7.7 (-1.7) — —
Massey Totals — 134.3 (-14.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 98% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCD -3.0 (+3.0) 136.3 (-16.3) 68% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCD -6.7 (-0.7) 139.3 (-19.3) 73% ✓
Baseline ML UCD -6.9 (-0.9) 139.0 (-19.0) 70% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCD -6.8 (-0.8) 138.7 (-18.7) 72% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 16, 2023 UCD 82 – 61 PAC
Dec 2, 2022 PAC 74 – 72 UCD
Dec 19, 2021 UCD 77 – 67 PAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCD PAC
Overall 13-11 8-22
Conference 5-6 3-11
Home 7-5 7-7
Away 5-5 0-13
Neutral 1-1 0-2
Last 5 2-2 2-3
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 67.6 65.2
Avg Pts Against 67.0 73.6
Massey 0.1 (#171) -1.5 (#200)
Bradley-Terry 0.91 (#109) -1.75 (#308)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#138) -2.37 (#297)
RPI 0.537 (#127) 0.317 (#349)
Shooting & Four Factors UCD PAC
FG% 41.8% 43.9%
3PT% 25.9% 36.9%
REB / G 35.8 35.4
OREB / G 8.5 10.2
AST / TO 0.77 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.3% 49.5%
TOV% 20.1% 19.5%
ORB% 22.5% 29.7%
FT Rate 30.6% 21.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.1% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 21.9% 20.9%
DRB% 67.3% 77.3%
Opp FT Rate 30.0% 18.6%

Game Analysis

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