Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -0.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.0 (-12.0) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -0.6 (-10.6) | 136.2 (+7.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -0.8 (-10.8) | 135.5 (+8.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -1.7 (-11.7) | 136.8 (+7.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | UCD 82 – 61 PAC |
| Dec 2, 2022 | PAC 74 – 72 UCD |
| Dec 2, 2021 | UCD 63 – 57 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 5-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-13 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#247) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#299) | 0.50 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#290) | -0.04 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#336) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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