Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PAC +275 UCD -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +21 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -6.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.5 (-16.5) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.6 (-17.4) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.8 (-18.2) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -2.4 (-18.6) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2022 | PAC 74 – 72 UCD |
| Dec 19, 2021 | UCD 77 – 67 PAC |
| Dec 2, 2021 | UCD 63 – 57 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-12 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#357) | -5.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#292) | -1.98 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#302) | -2.22 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#307) | 0.391 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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