Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +38 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -16.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -13.9 (+24.1) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -12.0 (+26.0) | 147.5 (+10.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -12.9 (+25.1) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -13.5 (+24.5) | 150.1 (+7.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | UMBC 73 – 66 COLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#166) | -10.4 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#156) | -2.95 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#180) | -4.60 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.300 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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