Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | COLU +275 UMBC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -3.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.6 (-3.4) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.1 (-1.9) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.7 (-4.3) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -3.1 (-3.9) | 148.4 (-9.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | UMBC 98 – 60 COLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#342) | -3.3 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#328) | -0.44 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#326) | -0.39 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#338) | 0.434 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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