Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Under |
| Money | EVAN +120 SIU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -3.0 (+1.0) | 127.3 (-21.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.6 (+0.6) | 132.0 (-26.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.8 (+0.8) | 131.7 (-25.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -2.2 (+0.2) | 127.3 (-21.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 13, 2026 | SIU 86 – 60 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SIU 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 1, 2025 | EVAN 68 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#305) | -0.2 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#323) | 0.23 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#323) | 0.06 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#327) | 0.507 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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