Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -2.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.8 (-6.8) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.3 (-6.3) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.2 (-7.2) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.5 (-6.5) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2020 | UNCW 80 – 72 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-2 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-0 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#295) | -3.7 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#275) | 1.92 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#302) | 2.76 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#335) | 0.476 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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