Betting Lines
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | MD -110 VT -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -8.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.2 (+2.2) | 130.7 (-10.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.5 (+1.5) | 134.7 (-14.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -5.7 (+1.7) | 134.2 (-14.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.3 (+1.3) | 135.3 (-15.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#164) | 14.7 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#178) | 2.27 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#166) | 5.26 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#139) | 0.558 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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