Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +22 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -13.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -7.7 (+14.3) | 142.2 (-28.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -11.3 (+10.7) | 145.1 (-31.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -11.6 (+10.4) | 145.1 (-31.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -12.1 (+9.9) | 144.3 (-30.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | -7.2 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#188) | -3.53 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#191) | -5.04 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#246) | 0.333 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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