Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HARV +105 URI -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +7 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -2.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -1.7 (-8.7) | 139.0 (-18.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -3.7 (-10.7) | 144.5 (-23.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -3.0 (-10.0) | 144.5 (-23.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -2.4 (-9.4) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 5-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#109) | 7.1 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#171) | 0.51 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#172) | 0.89 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#166) | 0.594 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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