Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHU +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -7.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.8 (-11.8) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -5.9 (-12.9) | 141.0 (+0.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -6.3 (-13.3) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -6.6 (-13.6) | 142.6 (-1.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#270) | -7.1 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#196) | -2.61 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#240) | -4.49 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#155) | 0.367 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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