Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BC -8.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -3.4 (+12.6) | 129.3 (+0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -4.3 (+11.7) | 135.5 (-5.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -4.5 (+11.5) | 134.8 (-4.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -4.1 (+11.9) | 133.3 (-3.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#119) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#173) | -0.03 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#168) | 0.58 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#198) | 0.510 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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