Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 114.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -6.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 98.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -5.2 (-1.2) | 122.2 (+3.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -4.8 (-0.8) | 121.5 (+4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -4.3 (-0.3) | 123.9 (+2.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -2.3 (+1.7) | 125.4 (+0.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#86) | 4.0 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#123) | 2.11 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#82) | 2.75 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#74) | 0.544 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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