Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -3.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -4.7 (+5.3) | 143.2 (-29.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -3.8 (+6.2) | 143.6 (-29.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.0 (+6.0) | 143.9 (-29.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.9 (+6.1) | 140.1 (-26.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | GWEB 84 – 79 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#216) | 1.0 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#128) | 0.03 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#133) | 0.08 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#190) | 0.527 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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