Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -700 GWEB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -5.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -6.0 (-11.0) | 144.3 (+18.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.6 (-9.6) | 146.1 (+16.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.3 (-9.3) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -4.4 (-9.4) | 142.8 (+20.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | ECU 62 – 52 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#175) | -2.0 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#228) | -0.65 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#241) | -0.71 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#239) | 0.482 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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