Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +24 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -24.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -20.1 (+3.9) | 137.3 (-21.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -17.8 (+6.2) | 142.1 (-26.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -20.3 (+3.7) | 141.3 (-25.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -21.4 (+2.6) | 137.6 (-21.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#65) | -11.2 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#57) | -3.89 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#76) | -5.75 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#36) | 0.337 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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