Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -10.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -11.9 (-8.9) | 145.7 (+7.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -9.2 (-6.2) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -9.9 (-6.9) | 146.7 (+6.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -9.9 (-6.9) | 147.0 (+6.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#77) | 1.2 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#60) | -1.01 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#50) | -1.55 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#39) | 0.446 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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