Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -0.1 (-6.1) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.5 (-5.5) | 146.7 (-4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.8 (-5.2) | 149.0 (-7.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.2 (-4.8) | 148.4 (-6.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#275) | 0.6 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#281) | -0.31 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#302) | -0.70 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#271) | 0.499 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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