Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -7.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -7.0 (+9.0) | 138.4 (-6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -7.8 (+8.2) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -7.5 (+8.5) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -8.4 (+7.6) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | SMC 64 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 19, 2022 | CSU 62 – 60 SMC |
| Dec 20, 2020 | SMC 53 – 33 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#39) | 7.1 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#8) | 2.82 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.02 (#6) | 3.77 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#44) | 0.597 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.