Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -650 CSU +460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -14.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.2 (-14.2) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.8 (-14.8) | 135.3 (-13.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.8 (-14.8) | 135.4 (-13.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.7 (-14.7) | 134.7 (-12.7) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | SMC 64 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 4, 2021 | CSU 74 – 58 SMC |
| Dec 20, 2020 | SMC 53 – 33 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#13) | 4.7 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#36) | 0.50 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#27) | 0.80 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.504 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.