Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -195 SMC +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -18.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -9.0 (-12.0) | 139.0 (-14.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -14.0 (-17.0) | 138.6 (-13.6) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.2 (-18.2) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -15.0 (-18.0) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2022 | CSU 62 – 60 SMC |
| Dec 4, 2021 | CSU 74 – 58 SMC |
| Dec 20, 2020 | SMC 53 – 33 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | 2.7 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#3) | -0.51 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.46 (#2) | 0.07 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.705 (#3) | 0.495 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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