Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -240 CSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +20 | 86 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -3.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-51.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -6.4 (+13.6) | 141.3 (-55.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.5 (+11.5) | 136.9 (-50.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -10.1 (+9.9) | 134.7 (-48.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | SMC 64 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 19, 2022 | CSU 62 – 60 SMC |
| Dec 4, 2021 | CSU 74 – 58 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#67) | 7.8 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#55) | 0.24 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#69) | 0.31 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#108) | 0.389 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 54.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 2.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 63.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 10.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 88.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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