Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -0.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.1 (-4.9) | 147.7 (-6.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.1 (-4.9) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.1 (-3.9) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -0.0 (-5.0) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#164) | 7.0 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#100) | 1.64 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#116) | 2.77 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#101) | 0.613 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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