Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -2.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -3.9 (-8.9) | 149.4 (-0.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -4.7 (-9.7) | 149.9 (-0.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -4.4 (-9.4) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -3.9 (-8.9) | 151.0 (-2.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#48) | 11.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#33) | 1.70 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#39) | 2.62 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#75) | 0.619 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 28.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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