Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -5.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -5.9 (+8.1) | 133.1 (-15.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.5 (+8.5) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.8 (+8.2) | 137.7 (-19.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.9 (+8.1) | 132.1 (-14.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | PROV 90 – 71 URI |
| Dec 7, 2024 | URI 69 – 63 PROV |
| Dec 3, 2023 | PROV 84 – 69 URI |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PROV 88 – 74 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 5-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#57) | 7.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#25) | 1.07 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#41) | 1.61 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#14) | 0.607 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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