Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -1200 URI +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -15.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -14.0 (+1.0) | 140.3 (+12.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -16.1 (-1.1) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -13.6 (+1.4) | 140.7 (+12.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -13.2 (+1.8) | 140.9 (+12.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | PROV 90 – 71 URI |
| Dec 7, 2024 | URI 69 – 63 PROV |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PROV 88 – 74 URI |
| Dec 4, 2021 | PROV 66 – 52 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#63) | -1.7 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#66) | 0.84 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#58) | 1.15 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#54) | 0.531 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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