Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -340 URI +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +19 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -4.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.4 (+15.6) | 155.1 (+5.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PROV -2.7 (+16.3) | 154.3 (+6.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PROV -3.8 (+15.2) | 152.3 (+8.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.8 (+15.2) | 154.0 (+7.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | URI 69 – 63 PROV |
| Dec 3, 2023 | PROV 84 – 69 URI |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PROV 88 – 74 URI |
| Dec 4, 2021 | PROV 66 – 52 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#95) | 6.7 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#134) | 1.84 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#115) | 2.72 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#137) | 0.541 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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