Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SCU -11.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -6.9 (-9.9) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -10.3 (-13.3) | 154.4 (-1.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -10.3 (-13.3) | 153.7 (-0.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -11.2 (-14.2) | 152.4 (+0.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#56) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#103) | 0.55 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#97) | 0.45 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#73) | 0.511 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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