Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -1.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.2 (+11.8) | 137.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -0.2 (+11.8) | 135.9 (+20.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.7 (+12.7) | 136.7 (+19.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.0 (+12.0) | 138.8 (+17.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | VAN 88 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#184) | 7.4 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#245) | 0.93 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#238) | 1.34 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#289) | 0.521 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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