Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +13 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -15.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+43.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -12.4 (+0.6) | 138.5 (+38.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -11.8 (+1.2) | 141.6 (+35.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -11.8 (+1.2) | 138.2 (+38.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -13.5 (-0.5) | 137.0 (+40.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | CARK 72 – 67 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#302) | -17.3 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#164) | -2.29 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#165) | -3.09 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#189) | 0.407 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.