Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +155 LUC -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -0.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -4.2 (-8.2) | 151.1 (-19.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -1.6 (-5.6) | 147.0 (-15.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -3.4 (-7.4) | 153.5 (-21.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -3.5 (-7.5) | 153.1 (-21.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | DEP 78 – 72 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#49) | 13.4 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#50) | 0.86 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#48) | 1.45 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#63) | 0.530 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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