Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MER -4.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.5 (+4.5) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.7 (+4.3) | 145.5 (+14.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.0 (+3.0) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.5 (+3.5) | 150.0 (+10.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 16, 2020 | GAST 88 – 81 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#211) | 0.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#188) | 0.48 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#215) | 0.67 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#137) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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