Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | GAST -185 MER +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -2.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -3.6 (+3.4) | 160.0 (+9.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.9 (+4.1) | 157.1 (+11.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.6 (+5.4) | 159.2 (+9.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.5 (+5.5) | 161.5 (+7.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#80) | 9.7 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#35) | 3.18 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#36) | 4.82 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.690 (#21) | 0.757 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 43.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 59.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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