Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MER +120 GAST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -2.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.0 (+6.0) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.2 (+5.2) | 141.7 (-17.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.6 (+5.6) | 143.5 (-19.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -2.0 (+6.0) | 144.2 (-20.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
| Dec 16, 2020 | GAST 88 – 81 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#307) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#280) | 0.09 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#310) | -0.09 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#263) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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