Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MER -650 GAST +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MER -21.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -17.2 (-6.2) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MER -14.3 (-3.3) | 149.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MER -15.8 (-4.8) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -17.7 (-6.7) | 146.0 (-1.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
| Dec 16, 2020 | GAST 88 – 81 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#140) | -14.1 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#66) | -3.42 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#75) | -4.87 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#86) | 0.390 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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