Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -163 MER +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.4 (+0.6) | 134.9 (+33.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.0 (+1.0) | 138.5 (+29.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MER 71 – 68 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
| Dec 16, 2020 | GAST 88 – 81 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#264) | 4.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#329) | -0.41 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#324) | -0.37 (#199) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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