Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -110 MER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.8 (-3.8) | 155.6 (-16.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.5 (-4.5) | 153.6 (-14.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.4 (-3.4) | 153.0 (-14.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.4 (-3.4) | 153.2 (-14.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MER 78 – 67 GAST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | MER 64 – 60 GAST |
| Nov 16, 2022 | GAST 85 – 83 MER |
| Dec 4, 2021 | MER 83 – 77 GAST |
| Dec 16, 2020 | GAST 88 – 81 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#304) | -5.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#300) | -0.84 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#303) | -1.60 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#270) | 0.443 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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