I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
57–30 on winners spread MAE 9.5 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia @ Baylor +3.0 148.3 66% 86–79 ✗
Delaware @ Duke +19.0 138.1 88% 58–92 ✓
Fairfield @ Wagner +7.1 140.5 75% 52–68 ✓
Columbia @ Maine +14.2 146.0 88% 70–93 ✓
Troy @ St. Thomas -2.8 137.6 33% 76–78 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Cleveland State +5.2 135.2 71% 58–67 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford +4.3 145.5 67% 58–60 ✓
Campbell @ App State +2.0 140.8 56% 63–58 ✗
UC San Diego @ Navy +15.6 136.6 88% 69–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Washington +12.5 147.0 87% 64–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Rice -0.9 138.8 44% 71–88 ✗
Utah Valley @ Morgan State -3.8 133.3 36% 72–73 ✗
UCF @ Oklahoma State -0.1 135.1 47% 60–56 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa -3.4 135.6 35% 68–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ Liberty +0.1 133.7 42% 76–72 ✗
Pennsylvania @ West Virginia +15.9 143.0 88% 58–92 ✓
Morehead State @ Vanderbilt +4.5 137.1 67% 43–76 ✓
Bucknell @ Georgia +5.4 140.3 73% 61–65 ✓
Lipscomb @ Notre Dame +11.8 150.9 86% 65–66 ✓
Bellarmine @ Clemson +5.7 137.5 67% 66–76 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate — — — 78–79 —
Fairleigh Dickinson @ SIU Edwardsville -2.8 156.8 41% 78–79 ✗
South Carolina @ Davidson +5.0 146.1 75% 60–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Ole Miss +19.4 141.1 90% 68–72 ✓
Vermont @ Iona +8.8 141.7 79% 50–71 ✓
Southern Utah @ Kansas +12.2 150.4 85% 76–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ Auburn +16.9 140.8 88% 56–72 ✓
North Alabama @ Mississippi Valley State -6.6 143.2 22% 68–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Houston Christian +0.2 134.0 44% 90–84 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Northern Arizona +4.4 137.9 64% 54–63 ✓
Nevada @ UT Arlington +2.9 140.3 61% 62–43 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northwestern +18.8 131.9 89% 52–60 ✓
South Alabama @ Oklahoma +7.3 131.3 74% 60–64 ✓
Florida @ Florida State -2.7 144.9 38% 76–67 ✓
Villanova @ Michigan State +13.3 133.7 87% 71–73 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ UConn +19.9 134.1 89% 50–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ East Texas A&M -6.5 157.4 23% 72–64 ✓
Boston College @ George Mason +4.1 136.6 67% 71–56 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Alabama +20.2 135.3 91% 62–104 ✓
Denver @ Idaho State +10.4 135.6 84% 70–69 ✗
Grambling @ Grand Canyon +4.1 132.9 58% 48–81 ✓
Arkansas State @ UC Davis +8.2 138.0 77% 60–75 ✓
Southern @ California -0.2 131.0 43% 74–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Montana +11.4 144.5 84% 51–62 ✓
Boise State @ Loyola Chicago -1.2 135.3 48% 70–48 ✓
Santa Clara @ DePaul +3.7 147.8 67% 69–61 ✗
Illinois @ UCLA +1.5 151.4 58% 79–70 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pacific +13.6 156.6 87% 94–91 ✗
High Point @ UNLV +7.4 146.0 75% 68–78 ✓
Cal Poly @ Stanford +4.5 132.9 66% 43–80 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ USC +4.0 136.9 62% 74–83 ✓
Rider @ Central Arkansas -5.4 138.0 29% 85–90 ✗
Western Carolina @ Lamar -3.9 140.4 32% 98–91 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Lafayette +2.1 135.8 59% 50–55 ✓
Niagara @ Stetson +6.5 136.7 77% 66–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Dayton +15.4 136.6 88% 51–60 ✓
Saint Louis @ Maryland +2.1 140.7 56% 67–95 ✓
Elon @ NC State +24.8 153.8 91% 63–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. Francis Brooklyn -1.4 140.0 41% 58–61 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Binghamton +9.8 153.4 83% 75–60 ✗
Winthrop @ Mercer +8.0 156.3 75% 68–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Kent State +22.5 149.5 91% 59–88 ✓
Bowling Green @ St. Bonaventure +5.4 140.1 68% 68–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ McNeese +3.6 136.4 62% 78–60 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Oakland -0.2 157.9 44% 90–92 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Missouri State +6.0 133.6 70% 51–75 ✓
Evansville @ SMU +4.3 139.6 65% 47–55 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Georgia State +3.4 139.5 59% 53–57 ✓
Buffalo @ Howard -2.0 153.3 43% 59–63 ✗
San José State @ Northern Colorado +2.0 136.1 59% 80–69 ✗
American University @ NJIT +2.9 131.0 57% 58–53 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Bradley +5.2 138.3 60% 60–73 ✓
Army @ William & Mary +2.4 153.5 57% 67–76 ✓
Campbell @ SE Louisiana -2.8 137.6 40% 69–70 ✗
Miami @ Providence +0.7 147.2 53% 74–64 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Florida +4.4 155.2 67% 66–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Idaho +2.8 138.1 59% 81–71 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Gardner-Webb +6.4 142.0 75% 64–66 ✓
UIC @ Fordham +10.3 138.6 82% 65–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Longwood +9.3 152.9 80% 83–99 ✓
Northeastern @ Syracuse +7.6 144.2 75% 48–76 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ UNC Asheville +6.8 155.2 78% 77–75 ✗
Belmont @ George Mason +3.7 141.4 67% 66–62 ✗
Fresno State @ North Texas +3.6 128.5 60% 52–61 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Florida Atlantic +9.9 148.6 81% 55–76 ✓
Youngstown State @ UC San Diego -10.3 150.7 16% 73–54 ✓
Western Michigan @ Rice -1.1 146.2 41% 88–96 ✗
Norfolk State @ Alabama A&M -5.9 144.9 24% 89–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.