Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | APP -163 CAM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAM +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | CAM -1.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -3.1 (-8.1) | 138.2 (-17.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.5 (-9.5) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.0 (-7.0) | 140.8 (-19.8) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#194) | 8.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#100) | -0.31 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#126) | -0.28 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#275) | 0.688 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 52.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 10.5% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
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