Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +275 WMU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +6 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -0.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+47.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -0.6 (-5.4) | 136.3 (+37.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -0.6 (-5.4) | 143.7 (+30.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.2 (-6.2) | 134.0 (+40.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -0.4 (-6.4) | 134.5 (+39.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#347) | -3.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#252) | -1.36 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#258) | -2.03 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#275) | 0.269 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.6% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.49 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.1% | 40.1% |
| TOV% | 29.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 4.0% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 54.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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