Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -800 EVAN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +8 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -6.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.7 (+3.3) | 141.9 (-39.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.9 (+0.1) | 138.0 (-36.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.3 (+3.7) | 139.6 (-37.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -4.5 (+3.5) | 140.6 (-38.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-19 |
| Home | 7-9 | 3-10 |
| Away | 1-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#261) | -1.8 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#241) | -0.36 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#206) | -0.56 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#211) | 0.540 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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