Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -120 MTSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +24 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -10.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -5.6 (+18.4) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -5.8 (+18.2) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.0 (+18.0) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MTSU 75 – 63 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MTSU 90 – 87 MOST |
| Dec 6, 2023 | MTSU 77 – 73 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | 1.9 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#233) | -0.40 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#203) | -0.63 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#289) | 0.271 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 91.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 41.6% |
Game Analysis
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