Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +100 MOST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.8 (+6.8) | 130.3 (+19.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.9 (+6.9) | 128.1 (+21.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.9 (+7.9) | 129.3 (+20.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -3.2 (+7.2) | 130.4 (+19.6) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MTSU 75 – 63 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MTSU 90 – 87 MOST |
| Nov 19, 2022 | MOST 75 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#269) | 4.4 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#285) | 1.06 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#258) | 1.21 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#260) | 0.576 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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