Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -135 MTSU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -0.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -0.3 (-11.7) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -0.8 (-12.8) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -0.2 (-12.2) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -0.6 (-12.6) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MTSU 90 – 87 MOST |
| Dec 6, 2023 | MTSU 77 – 73 MOST |
| Nov 19, 2022 | MOST 75 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#203) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | -0.05 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#213) | -0.10 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#238) | 0.532 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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