Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +125 MIA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -1.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.7 (-10.7) | 144.2 (-6.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.6 (-10.6) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.7 (-10.7) | 147.2 (-9.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.1 (-9.9) | 147.8 (-9.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | 2.8 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#70) | 0.81 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#58) | 1.19 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#152) | 0.451 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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