Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MER -163 WIN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MER -14.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.0 (+3.0) | 150.2 (-5.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -8.0 (+1.0) | 156.3 (-11.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -8.0 (+1.0) | 158.9 (-13.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.3 (+1.7) | 156.6 (-11.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | WIN 105 – 69 MER |
| Dec 21, 2024 | WIN 102 – 97 MER |
| Nov 13, 2021 | WIN 88 – 85 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#148) | -4.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#336) | -0.03 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#312) | -0.05 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.292 (#330) | 0.642 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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