I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Winthrop Coliseum · December 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread WIN -8.5 Away covered
O/U 160.5 Over
Money WIN -360 / MER +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIN win
Actual WIN +5 199 Won
Massey WIN -8.6 (-3.6)
Massey Totals 163.1 (+35.9)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML WIN -6.4 (-1.4) 158.1 (+40.9) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML WIN -7.2 (-2.2) 156.2 (+42.8) 75%
Baseline ML WIN -7.0 (-2.0) 156.2 (+42.8) 76%
Baseline Plus ML WIN -6.9 (-1.9) 158.5 (+40.5) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2025 WIN 10569 MER
Nov 19, 2022 MER 7768 WIN
Nov 13, 2021 WIN 8885 MER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIN MER
Overall 23-11 14-19
Conference 11-5 6-12
Home 16-2 7-6
Away 5-8 5-11
Neutral 2-1 2-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 82.3 73.7
Avg Pts Against 79.8 77.0
Massey -1.2 (#181) -5.6 (#266)
Bradley-Terry 0.18 (#154) -0.67 (#236)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.22 (#156) -1.51 (#270)
RPI 0.505 (#159) 0.446 (#275)
Shooting & Four Factors WIN MER
FG% 42.6% 44.8%
3PT% 26.7% 30.2%
REB / G 38.1 35.3
OREB / G 13.1 10.7
AST / TO 0.72 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.0% 51.2%
TOV% 18.7% 18.3%
ORB% 33.8% 28.9%
FT Rate 34.6% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.0% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 22.3% 18.6%
DRB% 66.7% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.2% 26.2%

Game Analysis

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