Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -360 MER +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -8.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (+35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -6.9 (-1.9) | 158.5 (+40.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -6.4 (-1.4) | 158.1 (+40.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -7.2 (-2.2) | 156.2 (+42.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.0 (-2.0) | 156.2 (+42.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | WIN 105 – 69 MER |
| Nov 19, 2022 | MER 77 – 68 WIN |
| Nov 13, 2021 | WIN 88 – 85 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | -5.6 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#154) | -0.67 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | -1.51 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#159) | 0.446 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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