Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -250 UCSD +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -25.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -15.6 (-6.6) | 130.7 (+16.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -15.6 (-6.6) | 136.6 (+10.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -17.3 (-8.3) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -16.7 (-7.7) | 134.9 (+12.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | UCSD 73 – 55 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#85) | -11.5 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#110) | -1.95 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#149) | -2.93 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.412 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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