Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -333 NAVY +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -14.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -8.2 (+9.8) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -11.0 (+7.0) | 141.6 (-13.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -12.8 (+5.2) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.5 (+5.5) | 138.6 (-10.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | NAVY 78 – 69 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#186) | -6.7 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#75) | -2.60 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#88) | -4.60 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#15) | 0.224 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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